Travel · IN60SECONDS

Is turbulence getting worse?

In some places, yes. Severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic rose 55% from 1979 to 2020, linked to climate change. It rarely endangers the plane, but it can hurt people who aren’t buckled in.

Quick Answer

There’s good evidence that some turbulence is increasing. A 2023 University of Reading study found that at a typical point over the North Atlantic, the yearly total of severe clear-air turbulence grew 55% from 1979 to 2020, from 17.7 to 27.4 hours. Moderate turbulence rose 37% and light turbulence 17%. Clear-air turbulence can’t be seen, even on a pilot’s weather radar. The researchers say warming air is strengthening wind shear in the jet streams, which stirs up more of it. Turbulence rarely threatens the plane itself, but it’s the most common cause of accidents on big airlines: a U.S. safety board report found it caused 37.6% of accidents on large air carriers from 2009 to 2018. Most people seriously hurt are flight attendants or passengers without a seat belt fastened. In May 2024, severe turbulence over Myanmar on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 injured dozens of people, and one passenger died.

By the Numbers

+55%Severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic, 1979–2020

17.7 → 27.4Hours of severe turbulence a year at a typical North Atlantic point

37.6%Share of accidents on large U.S. airlines caused by turbulence, 2009–2018

78.9%Share of those serious injuries suffered by flight attendants

Key Facts

Short answer: In some regions, yes, especially clear-air turbulence
Biggest increase found: Severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic, up 55% from 1979 to 2020
Likely cause: Warmer air strengthening wind shear in the jet streams
Best protection: Keep your seat belt fastened whenever you’re seated

How much each kind of turbulence rose over the North Atlantic, 1979–2020

	1979	2020	Change
Severe	17.7 hours	27.4 hours	+55%
Moderate	70.0 hours	96.1 hours	+37%
Light	466.5 hours	546.8 hours	+17%

Yearly totals at a typical point over the North Atlantic, from Prosser et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2023.

Invisible bumps

Clear-air turbulence happens in cloudless skies, often near the jet streams where winds at different heights move at very different speeds. Pilots can’t see it, and it doesn’t show up on weather radar, which makes it hard to avoid.

A warming link

The 2023 study found that warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions is increasing wind shear in the jet streams. The biggest increases were over the United States and the North Atlantic, but busy routes over Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic also saw rises.

Who gets hurt

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board found that flight attendants, who are often up and working, made up 78.9% of people seriously injured in turbulence accidents from 2009 to 2018. Most passengers seriously injured were out of their seats or had their seat belts unfastened.

Myth vs. Fact

MythTurbulence can easily bring a plane down.

FactAirliners are built to fly through rough air. The real risk is to people who aren’t buckled in.

MythPilots can always see turbulence coming.

FactClear-air turbulence is invisible and doesn’t show up on weather radar.

The Bottom Line

Severe clear-air turbulence has increased on some busy routes, and scientists link it to a warming climate. The simplest protection is to keep your seat belt fastened whenever you’re in your seat.